This is a rough model I used to test my assumptions about Oura's IPO. It was built in a couple hours. You are welcome to play with it, but don't use it to make financial decisions. The most fun parameters to play with are the retention and ring-sales growth. Move them up and down and watch the value of the company change. (Note: I do not have any financial stake in Oura or know any of its executives.)
—equity value, model (10-yr grid + terminal)
—rings sold, years 1–10
—paid members in year 10
—LTV per buyer, discounted
1 Inputs the shaded cells are the only ones to edit; defaults are the S-1 where stated, assumptions marked
2 Unit economics per ring buyer
Lifetime value, discounted, by 12-month retention
3 Company value 10-year cohort grid, $M unless stated; year 1 = Jul 2026 – Jun 2027
Each column is a year from July 2026. Rings sold grow at the rate you set for five years, then go flat; members accumulate from ring sales and decay at the retention rate; revenue, costs, operating profit and tax follow; each year's after-tax cash is discounted, and a terminal value covers the years past ten. Year one runs above Oura's reported profit because every new member gets a full year of membership in the year they buy.
Sensitivity — equity value ($M) by 12-month retention (rows) × ring-sales growth (columns)